‘Oku taupotu ‘i lalo ha fakamatala fakaTonga
The number of people in hospital with Covid-19 could hit a record high in the Christmas wave.
New modelling has been released by the Ministry of Health, suggesting a likely peak of about 1100 people in hospital with Covid on any given day.
That is more than both the first Omicron wave in March (1000 a day) and second in July (836), partly driven by more older people getting the virus for the first time.
The updated scenario shows community cases peaking at about 13,000 a day by the end of this month, up from 11,000 a day in the early modelling for this third Omicron wave.
Deaths were modelled to peak at about 22 a day.
The current wave has been notoriously hard to predict. That was partly because there are six Omicron variants – all with slightly different characteristics – in the mix, and because modellers did not know the impact earlier outbreaks had on immunity.
The ministry said the latest scenarios reflected updated information since the start of the wave, allowing modellers to get a clearer picture based on assumptions about a higher level of transmission, waning immunity and people’s behaviour changing since restrictions were relaxed.
But there was still a relatively high degree of uncertainty about how the outbreak would play out.
“These models outline possible futures,” a spokesperson said. “They are not inevitable and the steps each of us take to be prepared for Covid-19 this summer can make for a safer summer for everyone.”
Antivirals, medicines and booster dose could both significantly reduce the number of people with Covid-19 that require hospital care.
The “variant soup” had made the outbreak even more difficult to predict in the early stages, but one was beginning to stick its head above the other five in the mix.
BA.2.75 is now the most common, making up 39 percent of genetically sequenced cases and about 58 percent of wastewater detections.
It has overtaken BA.5, which had dominated for five-and-a-half months and once made up more than 90 percent of all cases.
It now makes up 33 percent of cases, with BQ1.1 making up 14 percent, XBC and the original Omicron BA.2 on 5 percent, and XBB on 2.5 percent.
The ministry said BA.2.75 appeared to be more transmissible and could evade some existing immunity from other variants, but there was no sign it causes more severe illness.
‘More guesswork’
Auckland University Network Contagion Modelling programme co-leader Dion O’Neale said hospital admission forecasts released by the ministry were based on a “pretty high estimate” of daily infections, and don’t account for the effect of antivirals.
“We hope we’ll be on the lower side of what’s been in that recent Ministry of Health reporting.”
Waning protection from of vaccinations over time, more older people contracting the virus, and the stronger ability of the dominant variant BA.2.75 to evade immunity from a prior infection were risks for increased transmission.
However this Omicron wave was more difficult to predict because 60 variants were circulating, each with a different ability to evade immunity, and there was little information on the effect of previous infections without the delayed infection prevalence survey.
“It’s more guesswork than doing exactly the same modelling was this time a year ago.”
It was possible initial forecasts of one in 20 people having the virus in the Christmas week could be slightly high, but there was still increased risk, he said.
Lifting public health measures in September and a change in individual behaviour at the same time led to a 20 percent rise in transmission, he said. In the absence of new public health measures there were still things people could do to reduce risk of getting the virus, such as wearing masks indoors and testing for asymptomatic infection.
FAKAMATALA FAKATONGA
‘E malava ‘e he ta’au ‘o e kilisimasi ke toko lahi ‘aupito ai ‘a e kau tākoto falemahaki.
‘Oku ‘i ai ‘a e mahamahalo mei he me’a fai’anga fakafuofua fo’ou kuo tuku ange mai ‘e he Potungāue Mo’ui ‘e ngalingali ka a’u ki he toko tahaafe teau ‘a e kau puke ‘i he ‘aho.
‘E laka ange ‘eni ia ‘i he fuofua ha’aki ko ia ‘a e Omicron ‘i Ma’asi, na’e toko tahaafe he ‘aho, pea ‘i hono tu’o ua ‘i Siulai ko e toko valungeau tolungofulu mā ono [836], kau ki ai ‘a e toko lahi ange ‘a e kau toulekeleka ko e fuofua taimi ‘eni ke ma’u kinautolu ‘e he vailasi.
Ko e tūkunga fakamuimui taha ‘oku hā ai ‘e a’u ki he ma’olunga taha ‘a e kau puke ‘i he komiunitī ki he tahamano toluafe ‘i he ‘aho ‘i he faka’osinga ‘o e mahina ni, ko e hiki hake ia mei he tahamano teau ‘i he ‘aho mei he fakafuofua koē ‘i he’ene ‘asi mai ko ia hono tu’o tolu.
‘Oku pehē ngalingali ka a’u ‘a e kau mate ki he toko uofulu mā ua [22] ‘i he ‘aho.
Ko e ta’au ‘o e lolotonga ni ‘oku faingata’a fau ke fakafuofua’i. ‘Oku kaunga ki ai ‘a e kalasi kehekehe ‘eni ia ‘e ono ‘o e Omicron – pea nau ‘ulungaanga kehekehe kotoa – ‘i he’enau fehulunaki ni, pea koe’uhi na’e ‘ikai ‘ilo ia kimu’a ‘e he me’a fai’anga fakafuofua ‘a ‘ene uesia ki he ivi malu’i.
Na’e pehē ‘e he potungāue, Ko e talu mei he kamata ko ia ‘o e ta’au ‘o e me’a ko ‘eni, ‘oku hā mei he tūkunga fakamatala fakamuimui taha kuo tuku mai, ‘oku ne fakafaingofua’i ke hā mahino ‘a e me’a ngāue fai’anga fakafuofua ha ‘ata mahino ange fakatefito ‘i he fakafuofua fekau’aki mo e lēvolo ma’olunga ‘o e mafola, fakavaivai’i e ivi malu’i pea liliu mo e ‘ulungaanga ‘o e kakai talu mei hono fakangaloku ‘o e fakataputapui.
Ka ‘oku kei ‘i ai pē ‘a e tu’unga ta’epau ‘aupito fekau’aki mo e me’a ‘e hoko ‘i he tūkunga ‘o ha fu’u toko lahi fakavalevale ‘a e kau puke.
Pehē ‘e he toko taha fai fakamatala, ” ‘oku fakaikiiki ‘e he fai’anga fakafuofua ko ‘eni ‘a e tu’unga ‘e hoko ‘i he kaha’u.” ” ‘Oku ala mapule’i pē ia pea ko e hala ia ke fou ai ‘a e taha kotoa ‘o kitautolu ‘i he teuteu ko ia ki he Kōviti – 19 pea ke hoko ‘a e māl1olo ko ‘eni ‘o malu ki he taha kotoa pē.”
Ko e ongo vaito’o malu’i ko ‘eni ‘o e vailasi, faito’o mo e huhu malu’i te na tokoni lahi ‘aupito ke fakasi’isi’i e Kōviti – 19 mo e kakai ‘e tākoto falemahaki.
Ko e tu’unga makehe [variant soup] ko ‘eni ‘o e vailasi ‘oku hoko ia ke faingata’a ‘aupito ai ke fai ha fakafuofua lelei ‘i he kamata atu ko ‘eni, ka ‘oku ‘i ai e taha ‘oku kamata ke hā mahino hake ia mei he toenga ‘o e nima ko ē.
Ko e B.A.2.75 ko e mahino taha ia ‘i he loklotonga ni, ko e peseti ‘e 39 mei ai pea peseti ‘e 58 mei he vai ‘oku ngāue faka’aho ‘aki.
Kuo fakalaka ia ‘i he BA.5 ‘a ia ko ē na’e l;ahi taha ‘i he māhina ‘e nima mo e konga kuo ‘osi pea ne a’u ‘a e kau puke ‘i ai ki he peseti ‘e 90.
Ko e peseti ‘eni ‘e 33 ‘oku nau puke ai, peseti ‘e 14 ‘i he BQ.1.1 PEA PESETI LEVA ‘E 5 ‘i he Omicron BA.2 mo e XBB 2.5.
Na’e pehē ‘e he potungāue ‘oku mafola vave ange ‘a e B.A.2.75 pea ‘e ala fakatu’utāmaki ange ia ki he ivi malu’i pea ‘e ala hoko ai ha puke lalahi.
Na’e pehē ‘e he tokoni taki ‘o e polokalama fakatotolo ki he mafola ko ē ‘a e mahaki ‘a e ‘Univēsiti ‘o ‘Aokalani, Dion O’Neale, ko e fakafuofua ko ē kuo tuku mai ‘e he potungāue na’e fakatefito ia mei ha fakafuofua na’e fu’u ma’olunga ki he mafola faka’aho ‘a e mahaki pea ‘ikai fakamatala ki he ola ‘o e lelei ‘o e faito’o ki he vailasi.
” ‘Oku tau fakatauange te tau ‘i he tafa’aki ma’olalo ange ‘o hangē ko e lipoti ko ia na’e toki tuku mai mei he Potungāue Mo’ui.
Kia Dion O’Neale, ‘oku lahi ange me’a ‘oku lau ‘i he ngāue totonu ‘oku fakahoko ‘i he fakafuofua tatau na’e fakahoko ‘i he ta’u ‘e taha kuo hili.
Ko e holo ko ia ‘a e huhu malu’i ‘i he’ene a’u mai ki he taimi ni, kuo toko lahi ange ai e kau toulekeleka kuo nau ma’u e vailasi, pea toe mālohi ange ‘a e natula fakaaoao ‘o e kalasi BA.2.7 ke mālohi ange ia ‘i he uesia kimu’a pea ‘oku tu’u fakatu’utāmaki ai ‘ene mafola.
Kae kehe, ‘oku faingata’a ke fai ha fakafuofua ki he tu’unga ko ‘eni ‘oku ‘i ai ‘a e Omicron koe’uhi ko e kalasi kehekehe ‘eni ia ‘e onongofulu [60] ‘oku mafola holo, pea kehekehe honau fa’ahinga ‘ulungaanga ke ala mālohi ange ia ‘i he tūkunga malava ‘o e ivi malu’i lolotonga, pea ko e ki’i fakamatala si’isi’i pē ‘oku ma’u fekau’aki mo e ola ‘o e mafola ‘a e mahaki kimu’a he kae ‘oua ke fakahoko ‘a e savea fakafeitu’u.
” ‘Oku lahi ange me’a ‘oku lau ‘i he ngāue totonu ‘oku fakahoko ‘i he fakafuofua tatau na’e fakahoko ‘i he ta’u ‘e taha kuo hili.”
‘E malava ‘o hangē ko e ‘uluaki fakafuofua kimu’a ke ma’u ‘e he vailasi ‘a e toko taha mei he toko uofulu ‘i he uike kilisimasi pe ‘e toe ma’olunga ange, ka na’a ne pehē ‘oku kei tu’u fakatu’utāmaki pē ‘ene kaka ki ‘olunga.
Ko hono to’o ko ia ‘o e ngaahi tu’utu’uni ‘a e potungāue mo’ui ‘i Sepitema pea mo e liliu ko ia ‘a e tō’onga mo’ui ‘a e taautaha ‘i he taimi tatau na’e tupu ai ‘a e ‘alu ki ‘olunga ‘a e toko lahi ‘aki ‘a e peseti ‘e 20, na’a ne pehē, ko e to’o ko ia ‘a e ngaahi tu’utu’uni ‘a e potungāue mo’ui ka ‘oku kei toe lahi pē ‘a e ngaahi me’a ke fakahoko ‘e he kakai ke fakasi’isi’i ai ‘a hono ma’u ‘o e vailasi, hangē ko e tui e me’a malu’i mānava [mask] mo e sivi ke vakai’i na’a ‘oku ‘i ai ha faka’ilonga ‘o e mahaki.
