By Kate Newton of rnz.co.nz and is republished with permission
RNZ launched a political poll in April 2025 in partnership with the longstanding and reputable polling company Reid Research.
Photo: RNZ
The poll builds on the former Newshub-Reid Research Poll, which ran successfully from 2009 to 2023.
The polls, which will run about four times a year, involve 1000 online interviews nationwide.
Each poll includes standard questions about party vote preference and preferred prime minister, along with whether respondents feel the current government is taking the country in the right direction.
Responses to these questions will be collated and updated on this page each polling cycle.
Each poll also includes several topical questions. The results of these will be reported as part of that cycle’s news coverage.
Party vote
The crucial question asked in each polling cycle focuses on who respondents would give their party vote to if a general election was held the following day.
These are the results of the most recent poll.
Latest poll results: political parties
How poll respondents would use their party vote if a general election was held tomorrow0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%
Labour
35.6%
National
30.8%
NZ First
10.6%
Greens
10.1%
ACT
7.0%
Te Pāti Māori
3.2%
TOP
2.0%
Others
0.7%
Results exclude 57 undecided or non-voters and have a maximum margin of error of +/-3.1%, at a 95% confidence level.
And here is how the party vote trend has evolved over time.
Which party do voters prefer?
How poll respondents’ party vote preferences have fluctuated over timeJan21AprJulOctJan22AprJulOctJan23AprJulOctJan24AprJulOctJan25AprJulOctJan2605101520253035404550%
ACT
National
Greens
NZ First
Labour
Te Pāti Māori
Reid Research did not poll between the 2023 election and March 2025. The dotted line shows a rolling average for all other major political polls carried out during this period.
Chart: Kate Newton / RNZSource: Pre-March 2025 data: Wikipedia | Ongoing data: RNZ-Reid Research poll
RNZ uses these party vote results to calculate the seats each party would be allocated in Parliament.
Under current rules, parties must receive 5 percent of the vote or win an electorate seat to be returned to Parliament.
For the purposes of this poll, if support for a party currently in Parliament falls below the 5 percent threshold, but that party currently holds an electorate seat, RNZ assumes that party will retain its share of the party vote.
Made with Flourish • Create your own
New Zealand does not vote for its party leaders but a leader’s popularity or support is strongly linked to party support.
In the most recent poll, this is where the current party leaders and other contenders stood.
Latest poll results: preferred PM
Percentage of poll respondents who named the following leaders as their preferred Prime Minister
Hipkins
20.7%
Luxon
17.3%
Peters
13.1%
Swarbrick
6.8%
Seymour
6.8%
Results have a maximum margin of error of +/-3%, at a 95% confidence level.
Chart: Kate Newton / RNZSource: RNZ-Reid Research poll
And here is how party leaders’ support has changed over the last few years.
Who do voters prefer as prime minister?
Preferred prime minister rankings among poll respondents, for party leaders and MPs with significant results.Jul2021OctJan2022AprJulOctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJulOctJan2025AprJulOctJan2026051015202530%
Seymour
Luxon
Swarbrick
Peters
Hipkins
Reid Research did not poll between the 2023 election and March 2025. The dotted line shows a rolling average for all other major political polls carried out during this period.
Chart: Kate Newton / RNZSource: Pre-March 2025 data: Wikipedia | Ongoing data: RNZ-Reid Research poll
As well as outright preferences, the RNZ-Reid Research Poll also asks respondents how well the leaders of National and Labour are performing in their roles.
The overall outcome (the difference between respondents who believe a leader is performing well and those who believe they are not performing well) is represented in this chart of net favourability.
Major party leaders’ net favourability
The proportion of poll respondents who said the current Labour leader or National leader was performing well, minus those who said they were performing poorly.20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026−200204060%Labour22 May 2016−11.1%Labour22 May 2016−11.1%
Christopher Luxon becomes National leader
Chris Hipkins becomes Labour leader
Favourable
Unfavourable
National
Labour
Chart: Kate Newton / RNZSource: RNZ-Reid Research poll
We also ask how respondents feel about the overall direction of the country under the current government.
How do people feel about New Zealand’s current direction?
Proportion of poll respondents who said New Zealand was heading in the right direction under the current government, the wrong direction, or that they didn’t know.Jan21AprJulOctJan22AprJulOctJan23AprJulOctJan24AprJulOctJan25AprJulOctJan26010203040506070%Neither/Do not know(poll average)5 Oct 20219.6%Neither/Do not know (poll average)5 Oct 20219.6%
Right direction
Wrong direction
Neither/Do not know
Reid Research did not previously poll on this question. The dotted line shows a rolling average for other major political polls carried out prior to March 2025, for questions with similar wording.
Chart: Kate Newton / RNZSource: Pre-March 2025 data: Wikipedia | Ongoing data: RNZ-Reid Research poll
The RNZ-Reid Research poll margins of error (expressed at a 95 percent confidence level) are:
- Percentage result is 10 percent or 90 percent: +/- 1.9 percent
- Percentage result is 20 percent or 80 percent: +/- 2.5 percent
- Percentage result is 30 percent or 70 percent: +/- 2.7 percent
- Percentage result is 40 percent or 60 percent: +/- 3.0 percent
- Percentage result is 50 percent: +/- 3.1 percent
RNZ-Reid Research poll: Coalition in front as Labour gains groundNew poll results: A week of few distractions pays off for the coalitionNew RNZ-Reid Research poll: Politicians react to tightening numbers
