Tongans living in Japan are among millions bracing for a possible catastrophic ‘megaquake’ after the Japanese government issued a stark warning that current disaster preparations could fall short, leaving up to 300,000 people dead in the worst-case scenario.

Scientists now estimate a 75-82% chance of a massive earthquake striking the Nankai Trough—a 500-mile undersea faultline—within the next 30 years.

If it hits, the quake could trigger a devastating tsunami, causing up to $2 trillion in damage and nearly 300,000 fatalities, according to a March 2024 government report.

The government then released a new estimate in March saying that such a megaquake and subsequent tsunami could cause as many as 298,000 deaths and damage of up to $2 trillion, according to a Daily Mail report.

The government then released a new estimate in March saying that such a megaquake and subsequent tsunami could cause as many as 298,000 deaths and damage of up to $2 trillion.

In 2014, the Central Disaster Management Council issued a preparedness plan recommending a series of measures that, it was hoped, would reduce deaths by 80 per cent.

However, the government has stated that the steps taken so far will only reduce the toll by 20 per cent, according to the Kyodo News Agency, and an updated preparedness plan was issued on Tuesday.

This recommended accelerated efforts, including the construction of embankments and evacuation buildings, as well as more regular drills to enhance public readiness.

‘It is necessary for the nation, municipalities, companies and non-profits to come together and take measures in order to save as many lives as possible,’ Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told a government meeting, local media reported.

The Nankai Trough is a 500-mile undersea gully running parallel to Japan’s Pacific coast where one tectonic plate is ‘subducting’ – slowly slipping – underneath another.

Tonga Community in Japan

While there is no official data on the exact number of Tongans living in Japan, it is widely acknowledged that a significant community exists.

Many initially arrived on rugby contracts and later chose to settle permanently.

The Tongan diaspora in Japan remains active, as demonstrated last year when they warmly welcomed Tonga’s former Prime Minister, Hon. Hu‘akavameiliku, and his delegation at a special reception.