A new political poll has strengthened the prospect of Labour returning to power next month — a result that would also return three MPs of Tongan descent, Carmel Sepuloni, Jenny Salesa and Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki, to the government benches.
The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll has Labour well ahead of National, polling 30.8 percent compared with National’s 25.9 percent ahead of the November 7 general election.
The wider bloc numbers also favour the left, although neither side currently has enough support to govern without the Opportunity Party.
Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori together have 47.6 percent support, compared with 45.5 percent for National, ACT and New Zealand First — putting the Labour-led bloc 2.1 percentage points ahead.
Opportunity, polling at 5.5 percent, therefore holds a potentially decisive position in determining which side can form the next government.
The numbers are particularly significant for New Zealand’s Tongan community, with Sepuloni, Salesa and Suisuiki all part of Labour’s parliamentary team and having publicly identified their Tongan heritage or connections.
Sepuloni is one of Labour’s most senior MPs and served as Deputy Prime Minister in the final months of the previous Labour government, while Salesa also previously served as a Cabinet minister.
Suisuiki, who entered Parliament in 2017, is standing again for Labour in the 2026 election.
National’s 25.9 percent is its worst poll result since its crushing defeat at the 2020 election, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins also leads Prime Minister Christopher Luxon as preferred prime minister.
The Greens surged to 14.8 percent, while New Zealand First polled at 10.6 percent, ACT at nine percent and Te Pāti Māori at two percent.
Hipkins remained preferred prime minister on 21.9 percent, ahead of Luxon on 17.1 percent.
National campaign chair Simeon Brown acknowledged the election would be close and said National had considerable work to do before polling day.
Hipkins said Labour was seeing momentum behind its campaign and believed New Zealanders wanted a change of government.
The poll also found more than half of respondents believed New Zealand was heading in the wrong direction under the current government.
With about a month remaining before election day, the formation of the next government remains finely balanced, but Labour’s lead over National and the left bloc’s narrow advantage have raised the prospect of Sepuloni, Salesa and Suisuiki once again sitting on the government side of Parliament.
Reid Research surveyed 1000 eligible voters between September 24 and October 1. The poll has a maximum reported margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
Source: RNZ
