‘Oku taupotu ‘i lalo ha fakamatala fakaTonga
People are being urged to ensure they have been vaccinated and had had booster shots as experts predict a third wave of Covid-19.
Booster shots were critical in defending people from Covid, one expert has said.
Predictions of a third wave have been made as the number of cases has risen. There are 6000 cases in Auckland.
New Covid infections have jumped by more than 1500 cases in a day. On Thursday the Ministry of Health reported 3923 new Omicron cases across New Zealand. On Wednesday, October 26, there were 2410 infections.
This week the ministry reported 16,399 cases over the past week – an increase of about 2000 infections in seven days.
On Monday, there were 243 people in hospitals across New Zealand with the virus and six in intensive care. That number has risen since protection framework restrictions were lifted in September when case numbers were low.
The ministry also reported 41 deaths, including one person aged between 10 and 19.
While BA.4/5 remained the dominant variant across New Zealand, wastewater monitoring has recently detected a new subvariant BQ.1.1 in West Auckland, Rotorua and Porirua.
There is also a case of XBB, a recombinant variant that is made up of genetic material from two other subvariants.
Professor Michael Plank, who teaches mathematics and statistics at Canterbury University and models Covid, said New Zealand was likely to see a third wave of infections.
He said the country would follow the similar trends seen in Europe, and the question was not if there would be a new wave of infections, but how large it would be.
A third wave of the Omicron variant of Covid-19 was likely to hit the country this year, epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker said.
Professor Baker, from Otago University, said Singapore, whose experience of the pandemic has been similar to New Zealand’s, was also experiencing a steady rise.
“That may be what we’ll see here,” Professor Baker said.
Baker said it was “slightly worrying” to see cruise ships back in New Zealand waters with about 130 infected people on one ship that has berthed at Wellington.
However, with 10,000 people flying in daily from overseas, cases on cruise ships would make a relatively small contribution to the country’s Covid-19 toll.
Baker was concerned that many adults had not lined up for their booster shots.
“That’s really a critical step and still the best measure that people can take to protect themselves and it does help against these new variants as well.”
Covid-19 modeler David Welch said a range of different factors, including loosened restrictions, waning immunity and new sub-variants would affect the third wave.
It appeared the doubling rate was around three weeks and not rising quickly, which might mean the coming wave would be smaller and shorter than the second wave.
Review
Last week, the Government announced it would be winding down special powers that enabled it to order lockdowns, vaccine mandates and managed isolation and quarantine before the end of the year.
However, requirements for infected people to isolate – which Australia recently scrapped – along with masking mandates in health and aged-care facilities have been retained.
People are urged to ensure they have been vaccinated and had had booster shots.
The next review of remaining isolation and mask-wearing measures will take place by the end of November.
FAKAMATALA FAKTONGA
‘Oku kolea ai pē ‘a e kakai ke fakapapau’i ‘oku nau huhu malu’i mo booster he ko e fakafuofua ‘a e kau taukei ‘e ‘i ai ha toe ta’au hono 3 ‘a e Kōviti -19.Na’e pehē ‘e ha taha ‘oe kau mataotao ko e huhu booster ‘oku fai e fakafuofua lelei ki hono malu’i e kakai mei he Kōviti. Kuo fai ha fakafuofua ki ha toe takai tu’o 3 mai ‘i he ‘a’alu ko ‘eni ‘a e toko lahi ‘o e keisi ki ‘olunga. Ko e keisi ‘e 6000 ‘i ‘Aokalani. Kuo ‘alu e ma’olunga ‘o e kau puke fo’ou ‘o lahi hake he toko 1500 ‘i he ‘aho. Na’e lipooti ‘e he Potungāue Mo’ui ‘i he ‘aho Tu’apulelulu ha keisi Omicron fo’ou ‘e 3923 ‘i Nu’usila fakakātoa. ‘I he Pulelulu 26 ‘o ‘Okatopa, na’e ‘i ai e kau puke ‘e toko 2410.Na’e lipooti ‘e he potungāue ‘i he uike ni ha kau puke ‘e toko 16399 ‘i he uike kuo ‘osi, ko e hiki hake ia ‘aki ‘a e toko 2000 ‘o e kau puke he fo’i ‘aho ‘e 7.’I he Mōnite na’e tākoto falemahaki ai ha toko 243 ‘i Nu’usila ko e vailasi pea toko 6 he loki tokanga’i makehe. Kuo ‘alu hake toko lahi hili ko ia hono to’o ‘o e ngaahi tefito’i tu’utu’uni ‘o e fakataputapui ‘i Sepitema ‘i he taimi na’e toko si’i ai ‘a e keisi.Na’e toe lipooti ai pe ‘e he potungāue ha kau mate ‘e toko 41, kau ai ha taha ta’u 10 mo e 19. Lolotonga ko ia ‘a e kei mālohi taha ‘a e kalasi BA.4.5 ‘i Nu’usila, kuo fakatokanga’i ai ‘a e kalasi fo’ou ko e BQ.1.1 ‘i he fakatafe’anga vai ‘osi ngāue’aki ‘i he hihifo ‘o ‘Aokalani, Lotolua mo Polilua. ‘Oku toe ‘i ai mo e keisi ‘i he XBB, ko ha tuifio ia ‘a e kalasi ‘o fatu ai ha toe ki’i me’a mo’ui nei he ongo kalasi kimu’a.Na’e pehē ‘e Palofesa Michael Plank, ‘oku faiako fika mo Sitetisitika he ‘Univēsiti ‘o Canterbury, ‘e ngalingali ka fetaulaki ‘a Nu’usila mo e toe takai tu’o 3 mai ‘a e mahaki pipihi ni. Na’e ne pehē ‘e ala ke toe fou atu ‘a e fonua ‘i he hifonga tatau na’e fou ai ‘a ‘Iulope, pea ko e fehu’i ‘oku ‘ikai ko e hoko mai ‘a ha toe ta’au fo’ou ‘o e to’u mahaki, ka ko e ‘e fēfē hono lahi?Ko e ta’au hono 3 mai ‘a e kalasi Omicron ‘o e Kōviti – 19 ‘oku naglingali ke ne toe a’u mai ki he fonua he ta’u ni, ko e lau ia ‘a e mataotao ‘i he mala’e faito’o jko Palofesa Michael Baker. Na’e pehē ‘e Palofesa Baker mei he ‘Univēsiti ‘ ‘Ōtako, ko Singapoa kuo mahimangu ‘ he mahaki faka’auha ‘o tatau mo Nu’usila ‘ene toe ‘alu ke toko lahi ange. Na’e pehē ‘e Palofesa Baker , ” ngali ko e me’a ia te tau sio ki ai ‘i heni. “
