Time to ‘de-prioritise’ Covid-19 for most and shift focus to the at-risk – epidemiologist

Oku taupotu ‘i lalo ha fakamatala fakaTonga

It is time to ‘de-prioritise’ the response to Covid 19, which will now be no worse than the flu for the majority of the population, an epidemiologist says.

University of Otago professor Peter McIntyre said the focus should now be on getting those at higher risk double-boosted, rather than worrying about infection control through increased mask wearing or improved ventilation.

That group included the elderly and Māori and Pasifika over 60 years old.

Covid-19 numbers rose in recent weeks, prompting some epidemiologists to talk about a fourth wave of the disease, and calls for the government to enable better ventilation in classrooms and order masking on public transport.

Monday’s case numbers released by the Ministry of Health showed the case average for the week had risen on the previous week by 300 cases, up to 2029.

Hospitalisations were also up by 144, with 363 patients in hospital with Covid-19. And the deaths of 21 people were attributed to Covid-19, up from eight the previous week.

Professor McIntyre – also medical advisor for the Immunisation Advisory Centre – said rather than looking at the total numbers we should identify groups that were not double-boosted or did not have anti-virals available to them.

“The people we’re really worried about now are those people who’ve got significant underlying diseases or because they’re in very advanced years, so we’re talking about people over 70 or 75,” McIntyre said.

Māori and Pasifika older than 60 years were also in that group, he said.

“For everybody else it’s going to be a less severe problem for them than flu.”

McIntyre was also head of the Department for Women’s and Children’s Health at the University of Otago.

He said the combination of the number of historic Covid-19 infections and the country’s high vaccination rates meant there was a really good level of immunity in New Zealand.

“To be honest I get a bit frustrated … at the fact this keeps popping up with all these messages about avoiding infection.

“I just think without any disrespect … to the people who still think that’s important, I just believe the game’s moved on and we should have our attention elsewhere.”

Epidemiologist Michael Baker yesterday told RNZ that while the fourth wave of the virus was not as intense as the previous waves, it was definite, with a gradual rise in the number of self-reported cases every day, as seen in RNZ’s ongoing database of Covid-19 information.

Last week, Cabinet decided to keep the few remaining Covid-19 restrictions for at least the next two months. Most pandemic rules have been scrapped, but people still have to self-isolate for seven days if they test positive, and masks must be worn in hospitals in some circumstances.

FAKAMATALA FAKATONGA

Kuo taimi ke oua toe fakamu’omu’a ‘a e ngāue ki he Koviti 19, ‘a ia ‘i he taimi ‘e ‘ikai toe kovi ange ia ‘i he fuluu ki he tokolahi taha ‘o e kakai, ko e ha lau ia ‘a ha ‘epitemolosisi.

Na’e pehe ‘e Peter Mclintyre mei he ‘Univesiti ‘o Otago, ko e mea oku ton uke fai ki ai ‘a e tokanga ko kinautolu ‘oku i he tu’unga fakatu’utamaki ang eke huhu malu’i tu’o ua kinautolu, kae fakatatafe hoha’a ki hono pule’i ‘a e pipihi ‘aki hono fakalahi ‘a e tui masaki mo fakalelei’i ‘a e venitileisini’.

Ko e kulupu ko ia’ oku kau ai ‘a e kau vaivai mo e Maori mo e kau Pasifika ova ‘i he ta’u 60.

Na’e mahiki ‘a e fika ‘o e Koviti ‘i he ngaahi uike kuo osi, ‘o hu mai ai ‘a e kau ‘epotemolosisi ‘o talanoa ki ha toe aake mai hono fa ‘a e mahaki, pea mo ui ki he pule’anga ke ‘ai ha venitileisini lelei ‘i he ngaahi loki ako mo e tu’utu’uni’i ‘a e masaki ‘i he fefononga’aki ‘a e kakai’.

Na’e ha mei he ngaahi keisi ne tuku ange mai ‘e he  Potungaue Mo’ui ‘a e ‘avalisi ‘o ha mahiki ‘o keisi ‘e 300 a’u ki he 2029.

Ne a’u ‘a e tākoto falemahaki ki he toko 144 pea mahaki ‘e 363 ‘o e Koviti. Kate ‘e 21 he Koviti a’u ki he toko valu he uike ki mu’a’.

Oku toe hoko foki ‘a e Professor McIntyre – ko e fale’i fakametikolo ki he  Immunisation Advisory Centre – pea na’a ne pehe ‘oku totonu ke ‘oua te tau sio ki he fika fakakatoa, ka tau tau ‘aitenitifai ‘a e ngaahi kulupu ‘oku te’eki huhu pusitā tu’o ua pe te’eki ke nau ma’u ha ‘enitivailolo.

Ko e kakai ‘oku tau tokanga ki ai ‘a e kakai ‘oku i ai ‘a honau mahaki tauhi lahi pe kuo nau fu’u motu’a, ‘a ia ‘oku tau talanoa ki he ta’u 10 pe 75.

Ko e kakai Māori pe  Pasifika motu’a ange he ta’u 60 ‘oku nau ‘i he kulupu kinautolu ko ia’.

Ki he toenga e fa’ahinga ko ee ‘e ‘ikai ha fu’u fakatu’utamaki ia hange ke fakatu’utamaki ange ‘o e fuluu’.

Ne toe hoko foki ‘a McIntyre ko e ‘ulu ia ‘o e  Department for Women’s and Children’s Health at the University of Otago.

Na’a ne pehe ko e fakataha’i ‘o e fika ‘o e pipihi ‘a e Koviti mo e leiti ‘oe huhu malu’i mā’olunga ‘a e fonua’ ne uhinga ia na’e ‘i ai ‘a e levolo lelei ‘i he ‘imiunitii’ ‘i Nu’u Sila.

Ne pehē ‘e Epitemolosisi Michale Baker ki he letio Nu’u Sila lolotonga ‘oku ‘ikai fu’u o’o fefe ‘a e aake mai ko eni hono faa’ hange ko ‘ene aake ki mu’a, na’e ‘i ai ‘a e kaka mamalie ‘a e fika ‘o e ngaah keisi faia’aho.

I he uike kuo osi ne tu’utu’uni ‘a e kapineti ke kei hoko atu pe ngaahi fakangatangata ‘e ni’ihi ‘o e koviti oku kei toe ‘i he toe mahina ‘e ua ka hoko’.

Kuo lahi ‘a e ngaahi tu’utu’uni ki he panatemiki kuo ‘osi fakata’e’aonga’i ka e kei fiema’u pe kakai ke nau fakamavahe ‘i ha ‘aho e fitu kapau kuo nau tesi positive, pau ke tui ‘a e masaki i he ngaahi fale mahaki ‘i he ngaahi me’a ‘e ni’ihi.