Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National Party has fallen below its disastrous 2020 election result in one of the final opinion polls before New Zealand’s general election, raising the prospect of a change of government as early voting gets underway.
The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll puts National at 24.8 percent, down 1.1 percentage points, while Labour leads on 30.6 percent, giving opposition leader Chris Hipkins a 5.8-point advantage with just nine days until voting closes on November 7.
National’s result is below the 25.6 percent it received in the 2020 general election, when the party suffered a crushing defeat.
Labour’s support remains relatively steady, slipping 0.2 points, while Opportunity has surged 1.7 points to 7.2 percent, potentially positioning the smaller party to decide the next government.
Labour has path to power
Under the poll’s parliamentary projections, Labour would secure 37 seats, the Greens 18 and Opportunity nine, giving the three parties a combined 64 seats in a 120-seat Parliament.
The existing National-led coalition would secure 54 seats, comprising 30 for National and 12 each for ACT and New Zealand First.
Opportunity’s nine projected MPs could also give the current coalition a majority, although Luxon has repeatedly ruled out working with the party.
Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong has indicated she would negotiate first with whichever party wins the most seats, potentially favouring Labour.
Voters dissatisfied with Luxon
The poll also reveals widespread dissatisfaction with Luxon’s leadership, with 53.8 percent of respondents rating his performance poorly, compared with 30.1 percent who assess it positively.
Hipkins leads Luxon as preferred prime minister by 23.3 percent to 17.1 percent.
Meanwhile, 50.5 percent believe New Zealand is heading in the wrong direction, against 30.5 percent who believe the country is on the right track.
Hipkins said the findings reflected growing public demand for change.
“They’ve seen three years of this government. They don’t want to see three more,” he told RNZ.
National disputes findings
National campaign chair Simeon Brown dismissed the result as inconsistent with other polling, insisting the election remained close.
A contrasting 1News-Verian poll released on Tuesday placed National ahead on 29 percent and Labour on 27 percent.
Both surveys questioned 1,000 eligible voters over similar periods but used different methodologies.
The RNZ-Reid Research poll, conducted between October 20 and 26, reported a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
With early voting underway, the conflicting surveys highlight an uncertain contest, although the RNZ findings suggest Labour could return to power with support from the Greens and Opportunity.
